The 2019 Lok Sabha election in India saw extensive exit poll coverage from various agencies, each offering predictions on the outcome. Here’s a look at what some of the major exit polls predicted and how these predictions compared with the actual results:
2019 Exit Poll Predictions
Below are the agencies that predicted NDA to cross magic figure 272:
1. Times Now-VMR:
• NDA: 306 seats
• UPA: 132 seats
• Others: 104 seats
2. Republic TV-C Voter:
• NDA: 287 seats
• UPA: 128 seats
• Others: 127 seats
3. India Today-Axis My India:
• NDA: 339-365 seats
• UPA: 77-108 seats
• Others: 69-95 seats
4. News18-IPSOS:
• NDA: 336 seats
• UPA: 82 seats
• Others: 124 seats
5. News24-Today’s Chanakya:
• NDA: 350 seats
• UPA: 95 seats
• Others: 97 seats
Below are the agencies that predicted NDA NOT to cross magic figure 272:
Neta-NewsX
• NDA: 242
• UPA 164
• Others: 136
ABP-CSDS
• NDA 277 seats
• UPA: 130 seats
Actual Results
• NDA: 353 seats
• UPA: 91 seats
• Others: 98 seats
Analysis of Predictions vs. Actual Results
1. Times Now-VMR: This poll underestimated the NDA’s performance by 47 seats. It gave the NDA 306 seats, while the actual result was 353 seats. The UPA prediction was relatively close but slightly overestimated.
2. Republic TV-C Voter: This poll was among the less accurate ones, predicting 287 seats for the NDA, underestimating their strength by 66 seats. It also overestimated the UPA’s tally.
3. India Today-Axis My India: This poll was quite accurate, giving the NDA between 339 and 365 seats. The actual result fell within this range, indicating a strong prediction. The UPA’s tally was also predicted within a close range.
4. News18-IPSOS: This poll closely matched the actual results, predicting 336 seats for the NDA and slightly underestimating the UPA’s count.
5. News24-Today’s Chanakya: This was the most accurate poll, predicting 350 seats for the NDA, just three seats off the actual result. It closely matched the UPA and others’ tally as well.
Overall, the 2019 exit polls generally predicted a strong performance for the NDA, with some variance in the exact seat counts. The actual results showed a more decisive victory for the NDA, with 353 seats, which was accurately captured by the more optimistic exit polls like India Today-Axis My India and News24-Today’s Chanakya. These exit polls demonstrated a reasonable degree of accuracy in capturing the electoral mood, though exact seat numbers varied due to the inherent uncertainties and complexities of predicting election outcomes. One striking element of these exit polls is that 99% of the agencies predicted NDA to dominate UPA by a huge margin. Almost 90% of the agencies predicted Modi forming government. However, this time, it might be different. We need to wait a couple of days to know the exit polls of 2024.
– ZURAN (@CriticZuran)
