Both the ruling parties in Telugu states- Telugu Desam Party and Telangana Rastra Samithi are said to be worried over the NITI Aayog’s proposal to hold simultaneous elections for both Lok Sabha and state assemblies, as that would be a big setback for regional parties. NITI Aayog’s move indicating Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategic strike to avoid intermediate assembly polls, once Lok Sabha polls are concluded. As a results of each and every assembly polls are being considered as a testing point for the popularity of the prime minister, Modi feeling that such image building exercise is preventing him from seriously concentrating on governance.
He has already indicated the need for state funding for elections, besides few more reforms in the system. However, regional parties are likely to be remain as a stumbling block for conducting simultaneous polls, as they would be the bigger losers in the process.
In a study conducted by Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for 31 Assembly elections that were held along with Lok Sabha elections from 1989 to 2014 shows that in 24 instances/elections the major political parties polled almost a similar proportion of votes both for the Assembly and the Lok Sabha, while only in seven instances was the choice of voters somewhat different.
If elections are held separately then regional parties have a better scope of winning, says CSDS Director Prof Sanjay.. He concluded by saying, “Simultaneous elections will curb the voice of people living at the margins of the society by strangulating the scope for regional parties which reflect local aspirations/issues. This will reverse the process of deepening democracy.”
Praveen Chakravarty, who analysed the possible effect of simultaneous elections on voter behaviour, said, “The paper analysed the 2600 Assembly Constituencies in 16 elections and during simultaneous election, 77% of the time the same party was chosen in the assembly constituency as well as the parliament and in non -simultaneous elections, difference was 61%”.
Prof. Sanjay referring to proliferation of regional parties says that “…simultaneous elections might lead to the decline in the political status of regional parties. It will cause reverse democratisation.”
It may be recalled in 2014 Lok Sabha polls BJP had won all 7 seats in Delhi, but failed to get 7 seats in subsequent assembly polls. In the same way, with its allies it had won 31 of 40 seats in Bihar, but failed to win in subsequent assembly polls.