In the high-stakes political arena of Andhra Pradesh, the results of the 2024 assembly elections have aligned remarkably closely with predictions made by a local survey agency, KK Survey. Established in 2019, KK Survey has once again demonstrated its predictive prowess, delivering insights that outperformed several national-level agencies.
Exit Poll Results and Actual Outcomes
As of now, the final results for the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections are as follows:
TDP: 136 seats
YSRCP: 10 seats
JSP: 21 seats
BJP: 7 seats
KK Survey had forecasted a landslide victory for the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance, predicting they would secure 161 seats, with the YSRCP confined to 14 seats. He also predicted accurately that JSP would win all 21 seats it contested. Although the actual seat count for the alliance is slightly lower, KK Survey’s prediction remains significantly closer to the final results compared to other major polling agencies.
Credibility and Track Record
KK Survey gained prominence with its accurate prediction in 2019, where it forecasted 135 seats for YSRCP, closely matching the actual result. This achievement established KK Survey as a credible source of political forecasting in Andhra Pradesh, especially given that several national-level agencies failed to accurately gauge YSRCP’s popularity in 2019.
Comparative Analysis of Other Polling Agencies
Peoples Pulse predicted the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance would win 111-135 seats, with YSRCP receiving 45-60 seats. While their prediction acknowledged a win for the alliance, the figures were not as precise as KK Survey’s.
Chanakya Strategies forecasted 114-125 seats for the alliance and 39-49 seats for YSRCP. Known for accurately predicting the NDA’s success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, their prediction for Andhra Pradesh fell short of the actual outcomes.
RTV Exit Poll, led by former TV9 CEO Ravi Prakash, predicted 144 seats for the alliance and 31 for YSRCP. These numbers are relatively close but not as accurate as KK Survey’s.
Jan Mat Polls anticipated a win for YSRCP with 95-103 seats and 67-75 seats for the alliance. This prediction was significantly off the mark, showcasing a stark contrast to the actual results.
Aaraa projected 94-104 seats for YSRCP and 71-81 for the alliance. With a mixed track record and a history of overestimating YSRCP’s support, Aaraa’s predictions did not hold up against the final results.
Center for Psephological Studies (CPS) predicted YSRCP would win 97-108 seats and the alliance securing 66-78 seats. Although accurate in the 2019 AP elections, CPS’s predictions for 2024 were far from the actual outcome.
KK Survey’s exceptional accuracy in both the 2019 and 2024 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections has solidified its reputation as a reliable and insightful polling agency. By delivering predictions that closely matched the final results, KK Survey has proven that local expertise can sometimes surpass the analytical capabilities of national-level agencies.
